Optimism Bias

“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan*Think about your last job interview. No doubt you wanted to project a positive image. I’m sure you didn’t highlight your shortcomings. Like the time you doubted a decision you had made or the time you fretted over a trivial issue.

And, of course, you were being deliberately positive, telling yourself that all those challenges of the new job are easily overcome with a bit of elbow grease and clever ideas.I’ve been on the other end as an interviewer. In one interview, the young man projected an air of optimism, referring to the excitement and opportunities he would find in a government job. When we asked him why, he said, ‘I don’t know. That’s what my mum said.’

Immediately, the aura of optimism faded.

Research shows that even when the playing field is even, we are biased towards thinking optimistic people will attain more success than those who are pessimistic.

The researchers also showed that optimistic people performed no better on several tasks compared to their pessimistic counterparts. Nevertheless, participants who observed these activities consistently thought the optimistic groups would overcome the odds and succeed.

In other words, those who were observing the tasks were overly optimistic about the benefits of optimism.

Perhaps this is why most people tend to be overly optimistic about their future, a phenomenon called the optimism bias. This bias leads us to believe that we are less susceptible to disease and illness and other unfortunate events.

It’s a particular mindset that makes people less open to changing counter-productive behaviours, which has plagued efforts to improve health and safety. This is one of the reasons why health and safety campaigns have become more extreme and even grotesque.

Of course, you may be thinking, ‘This is all interesting for all those deluded and non-rational people but it doesn’t really apply to me.’

You might think this but there’s another surprise behind door number three: Black Spot Bias. It sounds like some rare and nasty disease but it is simply the condition where we assume that we are not susceptible to the same biases as others.

Unfortunately, you may not believe this either. After all, you may have a black spot for the Black Spot Bias. Either that or you may just be too optimistic.

*Poem by John O’Brien, Said Hanrahan, which deals with pessimism in an amusing fashion.